1
Hamilton's Reason
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 66
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
47%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-11-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 20/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 03/11/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 24/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 63% | -0.28 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 14/09/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |