4
White Sport Coat
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 81
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -8.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 27/03/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |