IvyArcIvyArc
5

Joyful Dancer

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 62

Finger Lakes · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼3
Strength81%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 01/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS1/09C6C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 03/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 72 · 6f Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/10/2025 · OR 72 par3/10C6OR 72C6 @ Aqueduct 22/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 70 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/11/2025 · OR 70 par22/11C6OR 70projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-11-22Aqueduct?6th3rd+3
2025-10-03Belmont At The Big A?7th4th+3
2025-09-01Saratoga?6th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/093/1022/11
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength59%

Delivery trend -10.6% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/09/20256th10/147%44%-0.03
03/10/20257th14/126%40%+0.14
22/11/20256th9/153%29%-0.24