3
Scarlett Queen
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 59
Finger Lakes · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
54%
Place Prob
46%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength69%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-11-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 04/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 12/11/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 12/05/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 08/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |