Dancin Jane
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 56
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-11-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-11-04 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-09-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -12.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/2024 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 89% | +0.31 |
| 21/09/2024 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 13/06/2025 | 3rd | 4/6 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 23/08/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 14/09/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 38% | -0.48 |
| 04/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 24/11/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 29% | -0.56 |
| 24/08/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |