6
Princess Azara
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 60
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength27%
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/02/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 44% | -0.37 |
| 27/02/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 27/03/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 07/04/2026 | 3rd | 8/11 | 96% | 60% | -0.36 |
| 21/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |