Tenacious Child
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 72
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 12th | 9th | +3 |
| 2026-06-03 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-04-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-03-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-05 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 05/02/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 22/03/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 03/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 28/06/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |