5
Freedsdale
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 89
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-11-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength42%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 14/10/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 05/11/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 19/11/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 18/08/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |