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4

Nostalgia's Smile

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 84

Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Monmouth Park 17/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 79 · 6f Fas 117 · beat its mark17/08/2025 · OR 79 par17/08C8OR 79C8 @ Monmouth Park 07/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 78 · 6f Slo 120 · beat its mark07/09/2025 · OR 78 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 18/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 88 · 5f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 88 par18/05C5OR 88C5 @ Finger Lakes 03/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 84 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 84 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 29/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 83 · 5f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/06/2026 · OR 83 par29/06C5OR 83C5 @ Finger Lakes 15/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 83 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 83 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 03/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 86 · 6f Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 86 par3/08C5OR 86C5 @ Finger Lakes 17/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 85 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 85 parC6 @ Finger Lakes 14/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 83 · 5f110y 124 · below its mark14/09/2026 · OR 83 par14/09C6OR 83projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Finger Lakes?5th5th0
2026-08-17Finger Lakes?1st0th+1
2026-08-03Finger Lakes?3rd2nd+1
2026-07-15Finger Lakes?3rd2nd+1
2026-06-29Finger Lakes?4th3rd+1
2026-06-03Finger Lakes?6th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/083/063/0814/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength97%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/08/20251st6/594%100%+0.06
07/09/20251st10/1195%100%+0.05
18/05/20265th16/116%0%-0.16
03/06/20266th10/147%17%-0.31
29/06/20264th20/10%40%+0.40
15/07/20263rd12/137%71%+0.35
03/08/20263rd16/116%60%+0.44
17/08/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
14/09/20265th14/126%20%-0.06