Raw Courage

7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 83

Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▲2

Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.5

Today:

Class gap: -2.0

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-14	Finger Lakes	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6
2026-08-26	Finger Lakes	?	5th	7th	−2	2.6
2026-08-12	Finger Lakes	?	2nd	4th	−2	5.6
2026-07-27	Finger Lakes	?	3rd	5th	−2	4.6
2026-07-13	Finger Lakes	?	3rd	5th	−2	4.6
2025-11-18	Finger Lakes	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
22/09/2025	4th	7/2	82%	50%	-0.32
20/10/2025	5th	11/2	71%	43%	-0.28
05/11/2025	7th	20/1	0%	14%	+0.14
18/11/2025	1st	15/2	61%	100%	+0.39
13/07/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	67%	+0.30
27/07/2026	3rd	3/1	84%	67%	-0.18
12/08/2026	2nd	16/1	16%	86%	+0.70
26/08/2026	5th	11/2	71%	60%	-0.11
14/09/2026	1st	12/1	37%	100%	+0.63