1
Zeebear
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 88
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -14.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 01/09/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 24/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 13/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |