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6

Beck's Dreamer

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 60

Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 70y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

74%

Place Prob

54%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Ellis Park 23/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 79 · 7f 119 · below its mark23/08/2025 · OR 79 par23/08C9OR 79C9 @ Churchill Downs 12/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 86 · 1m110y Fas 120 · below its mark12/09/2025 · OR 86 parC9 @ Aqueduct 23/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 86 · 1m 122 · below its mark23/01/2026 · OR 86 par23/01C9OR 86C9 @ Aqueduct 19/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 61 · 1m1f 126 · below its mark19/03/2026 · OR 61 parC9 @ Aqueduct 02/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 49 · 1m 126 · beat its mark02/04/2026 · OR 49 par2/04C9OR 49C9 @ Monmouth Park 16/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 57 · 1m70y 123 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 57 parC9 @ Monmouth Park 06/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 64 · 1m70y Fas 123 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 64 par6/06C9OR 64C9 @ Finger Lakes 11/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 61 · 1m70y 124 · below its mark11/08/2026 · OR 61 parC9 @ Finger Lakes 02/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 60 · 1m70y Gd 124 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 60 par2/09C9OR 60projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Finger Lakes?1st2nd−1
2026-08-11Finger Lakes?3rd4th−1
2026-06-06Monmouth Park?2nd3rd−1
2026-05-16Monmouth Park?4th5th−1
2026-04-02Aqueduct?3rd4th−1
2026-03-19Aqueduct?6th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0819/036/062/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength75%

Delivery trend +1.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/20254th12/137%50%+0.13
12/09/20253rd15/261%78%+0.17
23/01/202610th1/195%0%-0.95
19/03/20266th8/158%17%-0.41
02/04/20263rd25/10%60%+0.60
16/05/20264th9/276%57%-0.19
06/06/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
11/08/20263rd5/287%60%-0.27
02/09/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06