3
Doha Desert
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 35
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength50%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-05-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength29%
Delivery trend -6.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 50/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 27/03/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 15/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 18/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 09/06/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/07/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |