Flat Cap
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 67
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-01-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 11/07/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 26/12/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 16/01/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 01/09/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |