1
The Brown Egg
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 62
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
22%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +14.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |