9
Fiery Heart
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 76
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
22%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength79%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 08/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 20/10/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 29% | -0.57 |
| 25/11/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |