7
Hey Toby
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 81
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
66%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-04-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 09/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 16/04/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 10/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 14/08/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 90% | -0.00 |
| 14/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |