2
Mad Magic
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 73
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 14/10/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 13/11/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 25/11/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 26/08/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |