5
Retail Man
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 69
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength20%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 05/05/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 25/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 29/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 08/09/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |