Tony O
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 72
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 05/11/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/11/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 29/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 15/07/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/09/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |