8
Last Drink
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 67
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength60%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 02/09/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 24/09/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 28/10/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 07/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/09/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |