4
Lily's Army
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 55
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-04-07 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -17.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 24/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 09/09/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |