3
Montauk Surf
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 65
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength80%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 23/09/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/10/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 10/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 24/11/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 14/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |