7
Valiant Warrior
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 65
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
67%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength80%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-11-17 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-11-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-10-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2016 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 01/09/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 29/09/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 27/10/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 05/11/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 17/11/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 02/09/2026 | 7th | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 16/09/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |