5
Winston D
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 65
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
20%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength70%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 89% | +0.23 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 14/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |