1
Easter Sunday Girl
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 62
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength58%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 02/10/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 14/10/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 30/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |