5
Getting Ahead
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 71
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
66%
Place Prob
53%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength76%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 01/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 09/09/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 06/10/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 29/06/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 17/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 75% | -0.22 |
| 15/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |