Nice Baby
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 62
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/5
Win Prob
33%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-16 | Woodbine | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2025-09-22 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 15/06/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 22/07/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 18/08/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 22/09/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/10/2025 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 05/08/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |