2
Nicole's Song
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 59
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength17%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 07/10/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 03/08/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 15/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |