Shamra
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 70
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 30/10/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 12/12/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 15/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 11/06/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 09/07/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 15/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |