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5

Fredericka's Rose

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 56

Fort Erie · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength68%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Laurel Park 01/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 6f Fas 1241/05C9C5 @ Fort Erie 31/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 51 · 5f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 51 parC6 @ Fort Erie 21/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 50 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 50 par21/06C6OR 50C6 @ Fort Erie 07/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 43 · 5f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 43 parC6 @ Fort Erie 21/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 49 · 6f Slo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 49 par21/07C6OR 49C6 @ Fort Erie 10/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 48 · 7f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 48 parC8 @ Fort Erie 31/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 50 · 6f110y 120 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 50 par31/08C8OR 50C8 @ Fort Erie 14/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 53 · 7f Fm 120 · below its mark14/09/2026 · OR 53 par14/09C8OR 53projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Fort Erie?6th6th0
2026-08-31Fort Erie?3rd3rd0
2026-08-10Fort Erie?1st-1th+2
2026-07-21Fort Erie?4th2nd+2
2026-07-07Fort Erie?2nd0th+2
2026-06-21Fort Erie?6th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/057/0731/0814/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength26%

Delivery trend -7.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/05/20262nd12/137%83%+0.46
31/05/20264th9/153%50%-0.03
21/06/20266th7/282%17%-0.65
07/07/20262nd4/179%75%-0.04
21/07/20264th11/271%57%-0.14
10/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
31/08/20263rd9/488%67%-0.21
14/09/20266th3/184%17%-0.68