1
Free Charging
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 53
Fort Erie · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
88%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 02/05/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 14/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |