3
Maritude
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 44
Fort Erie · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength63%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 03/03/2026 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 88% | -0.09 |
| 24/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 14/04/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 60% | -0.35 |
| 21/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 07/07/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 12/08/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 14/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |