4
Porshas Run
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 38
Fort Erie · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength33%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 08/09/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 14/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 21/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 17/08/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 31/08/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 14/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |