Silverdart
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 61
Fort Erie · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-07-30 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-06-25 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2025 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 56% | -0.37 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 29/05/2026 | 8th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 18/08/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 14/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |