Oceanography

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 50

Fort Erie · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength63%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.9

Today:

Class gap: +1.6

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-07	Fort Erie	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2026-08-16	Woodbine	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-07-24	Woodbine	?	9th	7th	+2	3.4
2026-05-17	Woodbine	?	6th	4th	+2	6.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -14.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
17/05/2026	6th	14/1	26%	0%	-0.26
24/07/2026	9th	15/2	61%	0%	-0.61
16/08/2026	6th	8/1	58%	17%	-0.41
07/09/2026	5th	10/3	82%	0%	-0.82