IvyArcIvyArc
9

Pelee Island

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 45

Fort Erie · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

23%

Place Prob

22%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength77%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Woodbine 07/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 7f 118 · HIGHER CLASS7/09C7C7 @ Woodbine 16/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 27 · 7f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/11/2025 · OR 27 par16/11C7OR 27C9 @ Fort Erie 07/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 27 · 6f110y Fas 120 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 27 par7/07C9OR 27C6 @ Fort Erie 27/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 35 · 7f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 35 par27/07C6OR 35C6 @ Fort Erie 11/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 47 · 7f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 47 par11/08C6OR 47C9 @ Fort Erie 24/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 43 · 7f 120 · below its mark24/08/2026 · OR 43 par24/08C9OR 43C9 @ Fort Erie 14/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 41 · 7f Fm 118 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 41 par14/09C9OR 41projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Fort Erie?2nd2nd0
2026-08-24Fort Erie?6th6th0
2026-08-11Fort Erie?8th5th+3
2026-07-27Fort Erie?2nd-1th+3
2026-07-07Fort Erie?3rd3rd0
2025-11-16Woodbine?8th6th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0927/0714/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength78%

Delivery trend +1.0% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/09/20259th40/10%0%0.00
16/11/20258th20/10%0%0.00
07/07/20263rd14/126%67%+0.40
27/07/20262nd10/147%80%+0.33
11/08/20268th11/271%0%-0.71
24/08/20266th7/163%29%-0.35
14/09/20262nd16/116%86%+0.70