Rose For Carrick

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 55

Fort Erie · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

23%

Place Prob

22%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark

Move▼2

Strength74%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.9

Today:

Class gap: +1.6

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-14	Fort Erie	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-08-24	Fort Erie	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-08-11	Fort Erie	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2026-07-27	Fort Erie	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2026-06-29	Fort Erie	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2025-11-01	Woodbine	?	6th	4th	+2	6.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%

▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price

Trend▲

Strength82%

Delivery trend +8.7% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
01/11/2025	6th	12/1	37%	0%	-0.37
29/06/2026	6th	12/1	37%	29%	-0.08
27/07/2026	3rd	11/2	71%	60%	-0.11
11/08/2026	3rd	8/1	58%	71%	+0.14
24/08/2026	5th	11/2	71%	43%	-0.28
14/09/2026	4th	14/1	26%	57%	+0.31