Ashcar Nellie
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 76
Fort Erie · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
87%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 2.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 08/09/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 22/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 13/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 30/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |