5
Buff Bay
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 66
Fort Erie · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength71%
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 14/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 11/12/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 09/07/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 11/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |