1
Moventothecountry
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 70
Fort Erie · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength72%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 12/12/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 10/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |