6
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5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 72
Fort Erie · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength50%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 03/03/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 24/03/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 21/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 18/05/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 20% | -0.70 |
| 30/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 25% | -0.61 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |