2
Shes Hot To Trot
7yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 67
Fort Erie · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength70%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 17/11/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 15/09/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |