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5

Can't Argue That

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 45

Fort Erie · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Woodbine 25/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 5f 12425/06C9C9 @ Woodbine 30/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 62 · 6f 124 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 62 par30/07C9OR 62C6 @ Fort Erie 10/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 59 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 59 par10/08C6OR 59C6 @ Fort Erie 30/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 47 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 47 par30/08C6OR 47projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Fort Erie?5th5th0
2026-08-10Fort Erie?5th5th0
2026-07-30Woodbine?4th7th−3
2026-06-25Woodbine?3rd6th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0630/0710/0830/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength2%

Delivery trend -4.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/06/20263rd7/282%75%-0.07
30/07/20264th2/189%25%-0.64
10/08/20265th9/276%33%-0.43
30/08/20265th15/261%33%-0.27