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3

Kittabarta

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 51

Fort Erie · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

9%

Place Prob

20%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Woodbine 18/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 5f 12018/06C7C7 @ Woodbine 23/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 58 · 1m Fm 120 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 58 par23/07C7OR 58C9 @ Woodbine 14/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 31 · 6f110y Fas 120 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 31 par14/08C9OR 31C9 @ Woodbine 04/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 43 · 6f110y Fas 118 · below its mark04/09/2026 · OR 43 par4/09C9OR 43C9 @ Fort Erie 15/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 50 · 6f Fas 118 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 50 par15/09C9OR 50projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Fort Erie?2nd5th−3
2026-09-04Woodbine?7th10th−3
2026-08-14Woodbine?7th10th−3
2026-07-23Woodbine?8th9th−1
2026-06-18Woodbine?7th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0623/0714/084/0915/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +12.2% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/06/20267th20/10%0%0.00
23/07/20268th40/10%0%0.00
14/08/20267th33/10%45%+0.45
04/09/20267th20/10%14%+0.14
15/09/20262nd14/126%80%+0.54