7
Berkus
5yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 71
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-08-25 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-05 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-08 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength87%
Delivery trend +7.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/2025 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 17% | -0.71 |
| 13/04/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 11/05/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 56% | -0.31 |
| 08/07/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/08/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 25/08/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 38% | -0.45 |
| 17/08/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 15/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |