2
Bourbononaholiday
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 70
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength70%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 18/10/2025 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 14/11/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 16/05/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/08/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 11/09/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |