3
Conacher
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 70
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 20/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/12/2025 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 07/08/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 30/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 14/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |