Wolf Beach
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 74
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 8th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 22/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 06/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 21/10/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 28/07/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 07/09/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 22/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |