Bay Breeze
7yo Gelding · 10-9 · OR 58
Hamilton · Clearwater DC Ltd Environmental Solutions Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 6f 6y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Hamilton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-09 | Carlisle | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Carlisle | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Carlisle | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Ripon | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 11th | 4/1 | 79% | 9% | -0.70 |
| 13/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 18/05/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 21/09/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |